Leaders missing and China ‘furious’: the Pacific Islands forum off to a decidedly shaky start

Republished from The Conversation

Editor's note: The 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting is underway in Palau (30 August – 4 September 2026). It is the first Forum since Fiji signed the Vuvale Union and Ocean of Peace Alliance with Australia on 6 July, and since China's ballistic missile test in the Pacific the same day. Five heads of government are absent — from Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Kiribati. The Forum's foreign ministers meeting in Suva in August failed to agree on a joint statement responding to China's missile test. FPR is republishing this analysis from The Conversation to give readers immediate coverage of the Forum while FPR develops its own analysis of Fiji's positioning within it. FPR's earlier coverage of the Vuvale Union and Ocean of Peace Alliance signing is available in our Pacific Politics section.

Are the Pacific Islands leaders meeting?

Some 22 leaders and ministerial representatives from Australia, New Zealand, Palau, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu are attending. French Polynesia and New Caledonia are also members, but their leaders are not attending. That said, the number of leaders attending has been reduced due to political situations in the home countries of some who had committed to attend – notably Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Samoa.

The Forum Secretary General, Baron Waqa, has advised there are 22 dialogue partners in attendance for the traditional post-forum dialogue. This includes some, such as the United States, that will attend only virtually.

China, notably, is sending only its ambassador to Fiji, Zhou Jian, indicating its displeasure at Taiwan's inclusion in the meeting.

Anthony Albanese and Christopher Luxon of New Zealand are the only heads of government from the dialogue partner grouping present.

Regional cohesion vs bilateral pacts

The recent security and other bilateral agreements between Pacific Island countries and Australia are being seen by some as undermining regional cohesion.

Australia's PM Anthony Albanese – accompanied by no fewer than five ministers – arrived on Sunday evening.

Since coming to power in 2022, the Australian government has focused most of its Pacific-related political capital on bilateral agreements.

Australia then secured security treaties with Tuvalu (2023), Naoero (formerly Nauru) (2024), Papua New Guinea (2025), Vanuatu (2026) and Fiji (2026).

Many Pacific Island leaders have embraced Australia's bilateral entreaties that elevate Canberra's geopolitical concerns. This is in contrast to the forum's multilateral approach and could be viewed as contrary to the Pacific way.

Meanwhile, China was planning an intercontinental ballistic missile test that splashed into Pacific waters while the Ocean of Peace treaty was being signed in Suva. Needless to say, Pacific Islands leaders were not impressed, but taking sides between China and the west is a distraction from the many other challenges the region faces.

What's the mood of the region right now?

With Palau being one of only three Forum members that continue to recognise Taiwan, and now the Forum chair, tensions between Palau and China are running high.

Following extended debate around procedural matters, the Forum agreed to include Taiwan (albeit under the moniker "Republic of China Taiwan") in Forum activities. But not everyone is happy about this.

Reports have emerged of Solomon Islands and Vanuatu having queried Taiwan's presence at official events, causing embarrassment to hosts and delegates alike.

China has also let it be known it is furious about Taiwan's presence and there is likely to be some form of retaliation to come. It has already withdrawn its planned participation in the Post-Forum Dialogue.

What are the priority issues for this Forum?

There are a raft of topics that will be discussed by the leaders. As always, climate change will be to the fore. The 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent will guide these discussions.

The Ocean of Peace concept and how it can be given effect will also be prominent. The intersection of this with the Boe Declaration and pending Regional Peace and Security Action Plan should provoke interesting discussion.

There are numerous other pressing issues to be tackled including transnational crime, oceans and fisheries, health, food security, digital connectivity and human rights.

What outcomes are expected from this Forum?

There is a great deal of pressure on the leaders as they gather in Palau. As well as the ubiquitous communique, we can expect to see the leaders sign the Ocean Statement and endorse the Vakamanu Regional Pacific Fisheries Strategy 2026-2035.

Now that the finalisation of the review of the Pacific Islands Forum Agreement is on the way, there will likely be a sharpened focus on the future role and shape of the forum.

The role of Australia in the region will also be under scrutiny, given the number of subregional and bilateral arrangements it has entered into in recent years.

Even as they are being welcomed to Palau, questions are being asked as to what direction the Pacific Islands Forum will take from here. Will it retain its centrality as the pre-eminent political and economic policy organisation? Or will it, more and more, be regarded as a talkfest whose relevance is on the wane?

Michael O'Keefe, Director, Master of International Relations, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe University

Michael O'Keefe has in the past worked for AusAID, the Pacific Islands Development Forum and Fijian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. La Trobe University provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.